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What are the Warriors odds to win the finals?

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The Golden State Warriors have odds around +4500 to win the 2025 NBA Finals, meaning a $100 bet could return $4,500. This longshot value reflects their reliance on Stephen Curry’s impact alongside roster changes like Buddy Hield’s addition, with challenges from stronger teams like the Celtics and Nuggets.

Current Championship Odds

The Golden State Warriors’ odds to win the 2025 NBA Finals are around +4500, longshots in comparison to the favored Boston Celtics at +400 and Denver Nuggets at +550. Meaning, a $100 bet placed on the Warriors could yield as high as $4,500 in return should they take the title. A large return because of the team’s comparative nebulosity back to the Finals. Some of the recent offseason moves have affected these odds: Trading away Klay Thompson reduced some shooting depth, but adding Buddy Hield – a career 40% three-point shooter – and versatile defender Kyle Anderson could improve the team’s shooting consistency and perimeter defense, two critical areas to compete against top-seeded teams. The return on such a Warriors’ bet is significantly higher than other Western Conference contenders, including the Los Angeles Lakers at +2500 and Phoenix Suns at +2000.

This disparity in odds reflects a comparison of team strengths, depth, and roster consistency across seasons. For instance, the Boston Celtics have shorter odds because their lineup is rather robust. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were at the core and were backed up by Finals appearances from recent seasons. What’s more, the Celtics strengthened their roster with key offseason acquisitions, making them a challenging matchup for any en route Finals aspirants. Whereas the Warriors are a bit weakened, with most analysts noting that their defense and health of the team is going to be some crucial heads to look at. Still, Stephen Curry’s elite scoring keeps them in contention for a high-risk, high-reward option.

Also worth noting by the fans of the Warriors is just how great a factor the effect of age on the core, team veterans can be on gameplay. Stephen Curry is still posting some pretty impressive numbers into his 36-year-old season, holding a three-point shooting percentage at about 43%. However, the minutes of Curry and the rest days he gets could be managed with extreme care, which may factor into the Warriors’ consistency throughout the season and into their longer odds. Another important veteran for the defensive plays is Draymond Green, although recent injuries may affect altogether. Such has been factored into the odds, which could see the Warriors lean heavier on youngsters Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Brandin Podziemski to complement the core group of players.

Key Roster Changes

The Golden State Warriors made some serious adjustment to their roster in front of the 2024-2025 season. Most of the changes are based on the needs for more shooting depth and defensive versatility. The Warriors have done one of the most dramatic moves: trading Klay Thompson away for the Dallas Mavericks, snapping an extended time together with Stephen Curry. The trade came as the Warriors were trying to reduce the amount at the salary cap and invest in younger talent. In return, the Warriors added Buddy Hield, an elite shooter with a career average of 40% from deep. That shooting skill was a great fit for this Warriors offense, as it gives the team a consistent outside option beyond the paint and can allow them to give Curry more space and freedom on the court.

On paper, one notable move was adding Kyle Anderson via a sign-and-trade deal. Into that mix comes Anderson, a versatile defender and very high basketball IQ who will give the Warriors depth in the frontcourt and patch up some of the lapses in their defense. Over the last few seasons, he has averaged a defensive rating of about 109 while providing sound coverage against forwards and guards. He should be quite valuable next to Draymond Green. This move has kept the Warriors in a position to field a competitive defense, which has been integral in their past championships. Anderson is expected to take some of the workload off Green, who may experience minute restrictions during the regular season because of his age and recent injuries.

On top of that, Golden State inked De’Anthony Melton on a one-year deal worth $12.8 million in a move with eyes on shoring up their defensive guard rotation. He has averaged 1.6 steals per game over the past few years, with a defensive rating hovering near 105. Melton showed in Philadelphia last season that he could be a reliable defender against quick guards-a need the Warriors must address after getting torched by quicker teams last season. It also gives Golden State some flexibility as Melton’s contract will allow them to reassess his fit and re-sign him depending on how the season will go.

Curry’s Impact

Stephen Curry is the franchise cornerstone of the Golden State Warriors, and his contribution towards team success is as statistically incredible as it is strategically irreplaceable. At 36 years old, Curry keeps outperforming even the loftiest expectations; his three-point shooting percentage sits at 42.8% over the course of his career. He averaged 29.4 points, 6.3 assists, and 6.1 rebounds last year, one of the leading scorers of the league at his age. This shooting from Curry pulls on defenses and extends the opponents to guard him far past the arc, allowing teammates more free space to operate. The volume in three-point shooting, with an average of 12.7 attempts per game last season, keeps setting the bar for the Warriors’ attack while allowing them to maximize the efficiency of their scores.

Curry’s function is more than just scoring; his facilitating has been instrumental in the development of the younger players. With him on the floor last season, the Warriors’ offensive rating was more than 15 points better, which has to make him one of those surefire indicators of a transformative impact that he creates on the team’s overall performance. On nights when Curry has one of those low-minute games, it’s about his on-court presence that will dictate how the opposing defense will respond. His 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio really aids in driving home just how efficient he proves to be as a creator, even under high defensive pressure. This kind of playmaking is extremely valuable for players like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody, who can lean on Curry’s court vision for open looks to accelerate their on-court development.

On defense, while not necessarily known for his work on that end of the hardwood, positioning away from the ball and quick hands do a lot to help out substantially. Through this past season, he has averaged around 1.0 steals per game, an indication that he reads passing lanes well enough to complement the Warriors’ defense. Additionally, his defensive rating has hovered in the neighborhood of 111, respectable given his age and workload on offense. His training regimen-which includes grueling offseason programs-allows him to keep his agility in check, while the endurance allows him to match up with quicker guards. Curry’s stamina enables him to play high minutes in close games, and in the high-stakes situation, often his energy at both ends of the floor is the difference in a Warriors win.

Top Contenders

The following teams come into the 2024-2025 NBA season as some of the main contenders for the title, backed by impressive rosters and recent playoff performances. The Boston Celtics are pacing at close to +400, major acquisitions headlining their lineup with adds like Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Last season, the Celtics dominated defensively, joining the top five in the league with a defensive rating of 111.9. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are among the league’s most potent duos on offense, averaging over 55 points between them. Therefore, that makes the Celtics the team to beat as they have great depth and versatility on both sides of the floor, translating into low odds and high expectations for Boston.

The reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets enter the season at +550 odds, and if anything, it cements them as one of the top contenders. With a highly-balanced and very effective style of play, the Nuggets have two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who averaged 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists last season. So, Jokic’s playoff run in 2024 was historic, including an averaging triple-double and leading this team in its dominating victory over the Miami Heat in the Finals. The more consistent scoring and playmaking of Jamal Murray enhance Denver’s lineup even more, and his postseason average of 26.1 points per game shows that when the situation calls for high-pressure action, he is up for the challenge. With depth and playoff experience coming in force, the Nuggets, backed by Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon, should make their case for serious contention of back-to-back titles.

At around +500 odds, the Milwaukee Bucks are once again top contenders after pulling off a blockbuster trade to put Damian Lillard alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. Lillard is one of the league’s elite scorers, and he averaged 32.2 points and 7.3 assists per game last season, giving a team known for its ‘D’ some much-needed firepower on offense. Giannis continued to put up MVP-type numbers last season, averaging 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists. Together, they’re one of the league’s most elite duos, one that will test top teams with the ability both to score and keep opponents from doing so. Milwaukee’s odds reflect both the high bar set with this powerful pairing and the deep playoff run that could result if health and chemistry are maintained.

Western Conference Rivals

The Denver Nuggets lead the pack of Western Conference rivals, with championship odds at +550, as the defending NBA champions. The Nuggets are anchored around Nikola Jokic, who remains a dominant force, averaging 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game last season. In the postseason, his average was even more spectacular, reaching a triple-double that powered Denver to the title. Complementing Jokic, Jamal Murray was an instrumental part since he contributed very heavily in the playoffs, averaging 26.1 points per game. For the 2023-2024 season, Denver led the league with a 117.5 offensive rating, while solid, consistent defense laid a foundation for the title. The depth and cohesion that made the Nuggets stand out from others have them right there as the strongest competitors to take the West.

The only other serious competitor, the Phoenix Suns, comes in at around +2000 odds and boasts a loaded offense with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. A year ago, Durant and Booker averaged over 27 points each to form one of the biggest scoring duos in the league. Tack on Beal, averaging 23.2 points per night, and the energy of Phoenix becomes one of the highest ceilings for offense in the league. Those, though, are defensive issues – and they had a defensive rating of 114.2 last season, which is on the lower end for most championship contenders. How the balance of that offense/defense scale tips will ultimately provide the answer to how far in the playoffs the Suns can advance against larger teams like the Denver Nuggets.

Meanwhile, rounding out the field in the West at close to +2500 are the Los Angeles Lakers. The steadiness of LeBron James and Anthony Davis powered the Lakers to last season’s Conference Finals. LeBron still managed to average 28.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game despite his age. Meanwhile, Davis paced the team on the defensive end with a 2.0 blocks-per-game average and 106.8 defensive rating. The Lakers made subtle adjustments, adding depth most notably with the re-signing of Rui Hachimura and the acquisition of Gabe Vincent, who brings valuable three-point shooting-37.8% last season-and playoff experience from his time spent with the Miami Heat. With Davis anchoring their defense and LeBron’s continued playmaking, the Lakers are expected to make another competitive playoff run.

Expert Predictions

With the additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, analysts have Boston as the favorite at preseason odds of +400, setting up a very competitive 2024-2025 NBA season with the Boston Celtics versus the Milwaukee Bucks as likely participants in the NBA Finals. They become a much more balanced unit when a strong defensive depth, led by the likes of Marcus Smart and Robert Williams, comes into play. Having star power on offense-like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown-average over 55 points combined per game last season-gives Boston an edge. Most analysts think that Boston’s defense will keep them atop the Eastern Conference and peg them as one of the top title contenders, projecting a win total in the neighborhood of 55 games.

The Milwaukee Bucks also create very high expectations from analysts after adding Damian Lillard to pair up with Giannis Antetokounmpo. This tandem is expected to wreak havoc on offense since Giannis averaged 31.1 points and 11.8 rebounds per game last season, and Lillard added 32.2 points and 7.3 assists per game. Analysts have this duo as one of the hardest to contain this season, even for the best defenses of the league. The Bucks are a clear second-strongest contender, usually with preseason odds close to +500, with projected win totals often set to go over 54 games if Giannis and Lillard remain healthy.

Denver Nuggets: Most experts are highly in support of the defending champions, as most seem to like their continuity and the extraordinary play of Nikola Jokic. Analysts project Jokic-coming off an averaged near triple-double in last year’s playoffs-to keep Denver running at a high-efficiency, team-oriented pace. Most analysts set the win total over/under at around 53 games for Denver, while lots of them expect Jamal Murray’s postseason experience to be huge in another deep playoff run. Experts price Denver’s title odds at +550, making the Nuggets top contenders to return to the Finals.

Betting Insights

NBA Championship odds instruct both bettors and fans alike of sportsbooks’ readjustment of their lines consistently in performance on the court, in addition to player health and other personnel concerns. At this very moment, Boston should be considered an early favorite to take the 2025 NBA Finals at a price of +400. What that means is one would get $400 on a $100 bet for the Celtics to win the championship—a reasonably strong indication of confidence bookmakers have in their retooled roster. Along with the high-scoring abilities of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, along with Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis offering depth to the team on defense, the Celtics have a sound core. As such, the Celtics may appeal to those bettors who like some sense of stability and symmetry on their rosters, perhaps with some playoff experience, never mind the lower potential return on investment because of the relatively short odds.

Another popular wager is the Milwaukee Bucks, presently hovering around +500 with optimism abounded by the Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo pairing. That could be quite the potent combination in the form of Lillard’s scoring ability, which averaged 32.2 points last season, along with Giannis’ paint control. A $100 wager on the Bucks at +500 returns a profit of $500 should they win the title. Bettors are weighing their chances based on the offensive upside and the potential impact this high-profile pairing can have, particularly against more defensively sound teams such as the Celtics. To the risk-averse bettors, Milwaukee’s odds offer a promising return with considerable security given recent performance trends.

In the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets offer a consistent but slightly longer-shot option at +550. Having been bolstered into solidity with Nikola Jokic’s nearly triple-double performance in last year’s playoffs, Denver has shown its offensive efficiency and depth across the board in their championship run. A $100 wager on Denver would return $550—a very attractive wager for anyone who believes that continuity and playoff experience go hand in hand with a potential title defense. However, Denver’s odds adjust for possible injuries and competitiveness in the West with all the high-scoring teams: the Suns, Lakers, etc. The Nuggets are, however, an intriguing balanced investment to many investors due to their somewhat projected above-average win and Jokic’s influence on both sides of the floor.

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